European Union: Crop
Proposed Agenda 2000 and EU enlargement are not included in the baseline.
Set-aside, 10 percent for 1998/99, is assumed to increase up to 15 percent by 2008/09 in response to rising intervention stock.
Lower world price, in relation to EU domestic price limits EU wheat exports at GATT limits until 2005/06, and EU stock rise up to 19.6 mmt as compared to 14.7 in 1999/00.
After 2005, higher world price enables EU to export without subsidy, reaching 20 mmt by 2008, while stock decline to 15.4 mmt.
Barley exports are expected to rise close to 10 mmt by 2008.
EU remains a small net importer of corn throughout the projection period.
EU, accounting for more than 40 percent of world soybean trade, expands its import by another 1.7 mmt in the next decade.