European Union: Livestock
Elimination of the early processing scheme for calves in 1999 is expected to increase calf slaughter by 700,000 head in 2000. The average calf slaughter weight is expected rise 2.2 percent.
Removal of the Over-Thirty-Month scheme in 2001 allows cull cow slaughter to enter the beef marketing chain, increasing beef production by nearly 250 tmt in 2002.
Beef production in excess of consumption rises to nearly 600 tmt in 2002. WTO constraints on subsidized beef exports limit the share of excess supply that can be absorbed by exports, so beef stocks rise more than 200 tmt each year. Beef stocks reach 1.8 mmt by 2008.
Accounting for 41 percent of the beef imported by Russia, EU beef exports are greatly affected by the Russian crisis. EU beef export levels fall 5 to 6 percent below the subsidized export limit in 1998 and 1999.
In response to the outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands in 1997, pork production increased in several European countries in 1998. Total production increased 5 percent, causing the average producer price to drop 28 percent. EU pork production is expected to continue to grow at 0.5 percent annually for the next decade.
In 1998, 56 percent of the EU’s pork exports and 51 percent of poultry exports were unsubsidized. This trade component is expected to increase slightly over the next decade; however, total meat exports decline 0.7 percent annually as a result of WTO commitments and high production costs relative to other exporters.