Wheat Outlook
World wheat area continues to decline since its record level in 1996/97 and is projected to decline further by another 1 percent next year. Wheat area stabilizes in the later period as price recovers.
Wheat production increases by more than 13 percent in the next decade mostly through yield growth.
Wheat consumption is likely to increase in countries with limited resources to expand production, and will be forced to depend on imported wheat to meet domestic demand.
Wheat price is projected to increase by 40 percent over the next decade mainly because of growing consumption in developing countries. Wheat stock-to-use ratio falls below 20 percent by 2008 as compared to 21 percent this year.
World wheat trade is projected to increase by more than 20 percent with developing countries accounting for most of these increase.
- Asia remains the fastest growing market, followed by Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Oil exporting countries in the Middle East are projected to increase their imports by more than 2 mmt.