Wheat Outlook (continued)
Wheat area in Argentina, Australia, and Canada has declined by approximately 13 percent since their highest level in 1996/97, but their exports have declined by more than 27 percent during the same period.
Wheat area in these countries remain more or less flat during the projection period but exports increase by more than 7 mmt because of increased production through yield growth and stagnant domestic consumption.
Continuing decline in livestock sector has reduced FSU republics from the largest wheat importer of the 80s to a small importer. Further projected decline in feed consumption is likely to turn FSU to become a small net exporter in the next decade.
The EU exports, constrained by GATT limitation until 2005, expand its exports to little more than 20 mmt by 2008.
Steadily rising exports allows the United States to maintain its market share around 35 percent until 2005 but falls to 30 percent by 2008 as the EU expands its exports beyond GATT level.