World Meat
World meat production is projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.9 percent over the next decade, reaching a total of 179.8 mmt by 2008. The growth in meat output is composed of 53.6 percent pork, 38.7 percent poultry, and 7.6 percent beef.
Weak economic growth in some Asian and Latin American countries slows the growth of per capita meat consumption in many countries in the next five years; however, average growth doubles in the second half of the projection period.
Economic recession for the next two years prompts per capita meat consumption to decline 0.2 to 1.2 percent in the next five years in Indonesia, Russia, the Ukraine, and other newly independent states.
The average level of Japanese meat imports is only 2.1 percent higher in 1999 to 2003 than in 1994 to 1998. As the Japanese economy recovers in the next century, meat imports rise 4.4 percent annually, and U.S. exports grow 5.8 percent annually.
Competitive U.S. prices and high quality enable U.S. meat producers to capture the largest share of the 3 mmt growth in world meat import demand. Argentina, Canada, and Brazil also increase meat exports substantially.
FAPRI estimates that actual meat and egg production in China may be 45 percent lower than official Chinese statistics for 1997.