World Pork
Per capita pork consumption in China increases 40 percent over the next decade, spurring 48 percent growth in domestic pork production. China’s rise in production accounts for nearly 76 percent of the total increase in world pork output.
New meat packing facilities in Canada siphon hogs away from live exports to the United States, decreasing Canadian live hog exports by 62 percent in the next ten years. Consequently, Canadian pork exports increase as much as 17 percent above 1998 levels.
World pork trade is projected to grow 36 percent in the next decade. Low-cost feed and capital inputs, coupled with high productivity, enable the United States to capture 76 percent of the growth in international markets. The U.S. share of total pork trade increases from 12.0 percent in 1998 to 32.6 percent in 2008.
Japanese pork imports dropped 18.4 percent following the disruption of trade with Taiwan in 1997. Imports are expected to decline an additional 6.4 percent in the next two years. However, when economic growth in Japan resumes, pork imports increase 5 percent annually for the remainder of the projection period.
As a result of the economic crisis, Russian pork imports declined 100 tmt in 1998, and they are expected to drop an additional 45 tmt by 2000. Although Russian pork imports resume growing in the next century, they do not exceed 350 tmt.