World Dairy
International prices for butter, whole milk powder (WMP), and nonfat dry milk (NFD) are projected to decline between 5 and 12 percent over the next three years, as a consequence of weak import demand in Russia, Japan, and Brazil. The f.o.b. Northern European price for cheese, conversely, rises 5.7 percent over the same period due to strong demand in the United States and Japan and to declining exports from the European Union.
Milk production in modeled countries increases 12 percent in the next decade, with India, the United States, Brazil, and China accounting for 31.5 mmt of the 45.8 mmt increase. Fluid milk consumption rises only 13.3 mmt, so most of the production increase is channeled into manufactured dairy products.
Cheese and butter production increase each year, 1.6 and 1.3 percent, respectively. Production of WMP and NFD grows at roughly half the rate of butter.
Given the stable income growth in most countries after 2000 and falling real prices for cheese, per capita consumption is projected to grow steadily in many countries. Increased cheese demand in countries with well-developed dairy sectors, such as the United States, EU, Australia, and New Zealand, is largely met by domestic production. International suppliers satisfy much of the growth in cheese demand in Asia.
Though total butter consumption in modeled countries is projected to grow 16.1 percent over the next decade, per capita consumption will remain flat or trend downward in most countries. Nearly 90 percent of the increase in butter consumption occurs in India.