Dairy Product Trade
The weak economic situation in Russia accounts for most of the 67 tmt drop in net butter imports in 1998 and the 10 tmt decline in 1999. The resumption of stronger economic growth by the end on the century prompts a modest 11.5 percent increase in world butter trade from 2000 to 2008. Exporters in Australia, New Zealand, and the European Union satisfy most of the growth in butter imports in other countries.
The rising popularity of fast food restaurants and western-style foods in Asia is expected to increase the demand for imported cheese in the region. The EU’s ability to increase its market share in Asia will be constrained by export subsidy commitments. Proximity to the market and lower production costs are expected to give Australia and New Zealand an edge in capitalizing on growth in Asian cheese demand.
Argentina is projected to become a more significant player in world dairy markets in the next decade, particularly in cheese and dry milk trade.
Rising incomes in Mexico and Brazil are expected to stimulate greater demand for all dairy products in these countries. Mexican and Brazilian domestic milk production will grow 22.5 and 39.5 percent, respectively, in the next 10 years, moderating their growth in dairy imports.
Economic recovery in Russia is expected to increase per capita consumption of dairy products after 2001; however, production of most products does not begin increasing until 2005, causing Russian butter and cheese imports to grow more than 15 percent from 2000 to 2004.