International Grains Model
The FAPRI International Grains Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade for wheat, corn, barley, and sorghum for several countries and regions of the world (listed below). More about model structure...
Wheat Outlook Summary
The world wheat price is projected to decrease to $157.5 per mt in 2006/07 as world production expands. The Gulf FOB wheat price grows to $178.2 per mt by 2015/16 as growth in world demand puts pressure on world markets. In 2005/06, world wheat area is lower because of declines in Australian, Argentine, and EU wheat areas. Wheat area is projected to increase in 2006/07, with the main sources of increase coming from recoveries in Australia and Argentina. In the later years, production increases come from yield growth.
Per capita consumption of wheat continues to decline but population growth offsets this trend and food use reaches 557.2 mmt in 2015/16 while feed use reaches 113.8 mmt in 2015/16. Consumption grows 0.8% annually on average, with the main source of the demand increase coming from Asian, Middle Eastern, and African countries. In 2006/07, world wheat net trade increases to 93 mmt because of the lower price, which increases food demand. Trade grows 1.8% annually on average, reaching 105.7 mmt in 2015/16. U.S. market share decreases as competing suppliers increase their market shares.
World Wheat Outlook Text 57 KB
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189 KB
33 KB
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Coarse Grains Outlook Summary
The world coarse grain area is lower in 2005/06 because of declines in barley and sorghum area. It is expected to decrease slightly in 2006/07 with reductions in corn and sorghum areas. After that, it increases steadily, reaching 245.7 mha in 2015/16, driven by increases in corn area, especially in the U.S. and Latin American countries, where it has a higher rate of return relative to other crops.
In 2005/06, corn production decreases as yields in the world return to their average levels. However, the high stock levels, reminiscent of the high production in 2004/05, increase the world corn supply, decreasing the price to $90.16 per mt. In 2006/07, world corn consumption increases more than production and the Gulf FOB corn price increases to $98.41 per mt. Consumption increases by more than 98 mmt over the next 10 years, driven by an increase in feed use from the livestock sector, especially in Asian and Latin American countries. Growth in both per capita consumption and population contributes to the increase in food demand.
The world sorghum price increases in 2006/07 to $105 per mt, as production decreases more than consumption. Thus, world net trade decreases slightly in 2006/07, to 5.1 mmt. With the increase in the world sorghum price over the next 10 years, world net trade does not reach its former levels. Lower production in 2005/06 decreases barley supply in world markets, increasing the price to $93.9 per mt. Despite higher production in 2006/07, lower stock levels decrease the world barley supply, increasing its price to $106.4 per mt. Net trade reaches 20.5 mmt in 2015/16, fueled by growth in Asian demand.
World Coarse Grains Outlook Text 121 KB
Download World Coarse Grains Outlook Tables:
389 KB
73 KB
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Contact Person:
Simla Tokgoz
International Grain Analyst
560B Heady Hall
Telephone: 515-294-6357
Fax: 515-294-6336
stokgoz@iastate.edu
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| Wheat |
Corn |
Barley |
Sorghum |
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Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Egypt
European Union - 15
European Union New Member States
India
Iran
Japan
Mexico
Morocco
Other Africa/Middle East
Other Asia
Other CIS
Other Eastern Europe
Other Latin America
Pakistan
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan
Tunisia
Ukraine
United States
Rest of World
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Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Egypt
European Union - 15
European Union New Member States
India
Indonesia
Israel
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Other Africa
Other Asia
Other CIS
Other Eastern Europe
Other Latin America
Other Middle East
Pakistan
Philippines
Russia
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Ukraine
United States
Vietnam
Rest of World
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Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
European Union - 15
European Union New Member States
Israel
Japan
Mexico
Other Africa
Other Asia
Other CIS
Other Eastern Europe
Other Latin America
Other Middle East
Pakistan
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Taiwan
Ukraine
United States
Rest of World
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Argentina
Australia
India
Israel
Japan
Mexico
Nigeria
Pakistan
South Africa
United States
Rest of World
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