International Oilseeds Model

The FAPRI International Oilseeds Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade in the soybean, rapeseed, sunflower seed, palm, and peanut complexes for several countries and regions of the world (listed below). More about model structure...

Oilseeds Outlook Summary

The world prices of soybean and sunfl ower have weakened this year under the pressure of high supplies while the rapeseed price has increased because of strong EU biodiesel demand. For 2006/07, another price decline for soybeans is expected despite the production adjustment. This correction leads to a price rebound for soybeans in 2007/08. In the long run, all oilseed prices are expected to remain within their established relationships.

World oilseed area expands 1% in 2005/06 despite a weaker price last season, primarily because of sunflower area expansion from corn acreage in the CIS. Total area increases by 10% throughout the projection period. Seventy-six percent of this increase is due to soybean area expansion in South America. The expected expansion of the oilseed area is caused by increased worldwide demand for protein meals for livestock feed and vegetable oils for human consumption and industrial uses.

Total oilseed production reaches 416 mmt in 2015/16, driven by growth in both area and yields. Oilseed crush increases 27% to meet the rising demand for oilseed meal and oil. Strong income growth in developing countries increases the demand for vegetable oils and livestock products, which increases the demand for oilseed oils and meals. Each importing country’s domestic policy and crushing capacity dictate whether oilseeds or oilseed products are imported. Considering these factors, world oilseed trade is projected to increase by 32% while meal trade and oil trade increase 31% and 42%, respectively, by 2015/16.

World Oilseeds Outlook Text 188 KB

Download World Oilseeds Outlook Tables:     565 KB     113 KB

Contact Person:
Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu
International Oilseeds Analyst
567 Heady Hall
Telephone: 515-294-8015
Fax: 515-294-6336
edyucard@iastate.edu

Commodity and Country Coverage
Soybean		Soybean Meal		Soybean Oil
	Argentina Brazil Canada China CIS European Union - 25 India Japan South Korea Taiwan United States Rest of World		Argentina Brazil Canada China CIS European Union - 25 India Japan South Korea Taiwan United States Rest of World		Argentina Brazil Canada China CIS European Union - 25 India Japan South Korea Taiwan United States Rest of World
Rapeseed		Rapeseed Meal		Rapeseed Oil
	Australia Canada China CIS European Union - 25 India Japan United States Rest of World		Canada China CIS European Union - 25 India Japan United States Rest of World		Australia Canada China CIS European Union - 25 India Japan United States Rest of World
Sunflower Seed		Sunflower Meal		Sunflower Oil
	Argentina China CIS European Union - 25 United States Rest of World		Argentina China CIS European Union - 25 United States Rest of World		Argentina China CIS European Union - 25 United States Rest of World
Palm Oil		Palm Kernel Meal		Palm Kernel Oil
	China European Union - 25 India Indonesia Malaysia Rest of World		European Union - 25 Indonesia Malaysia Rest of World		China European Union - 25 Indonesia Malaysia Rest of World
Peanut		Peanut Meal		Peanut Oil
	Argentina Canada China European Union - 25 India Mexico United States Rest of World		Argentina China European Union - 25 India United States Rest of World		Argentina China European Union - 25 India United States Rest of World